I have seen a few people saying that Greta Thunberg and Extinction Rebellion are creating unnecessary anxiety.
People seem to think the idea of human extinction is extreme and unlikely.
I agree. We probably wont go extinct this century. Probably. But we will very likely experience a major population check.
People my age remember the Ethiopian famine of the 1980s. 7.9 million people faced the possibility of starvation, and there were over 600,000 deaths in 1984 alone. One country. One year. And while the food production systems in Europe, America, Australia and Asia were still highly functional. A 7% death rate. Can we limit the whole world to a 7% death rate from starvation per year? If all our food systems start to suffer, where will aid come from?
Multiple factors caused these problems, and climate change is going to increase all of those factors.
I want to discuss just two things, where I have a little experience and knowledge. I am not an expert, but I do have some experience and knowledge, and I know where to look to find out information from experts.
Those two things are honey bees, and fruit trees.
Honey bees, as we all know, are important pollinators of many of our crops. Flowering plants and pollinating insects and animals evolved together. There are plenty of pollinating insects, but the European honey bee is by far the most useful as far as our food crops go, mostly because of the intensive ways we grow those crops.
Bees maintain a very careful 32 degree (Celsius) temperature in the brood chamber of their hive. They do this by using vibrations to heat the hive in cool weather, and by evaporative cooling in warm weather.You know how, when the weather gets near to 36 degrees (human body temperature) you have already she layers of clothing, and probably had a few cool drinks, maybe you sit in the airconditoned comfort of your home, or in the shade, or maybe you go for a swim? And you don't wait until it gets that warm to do these things: you start doing them maybe 10 degrees cooler than human body temperature. Well, so do honey bees.
The foraging bees in a hive STOP foraging as it gets hotter, and only collect water. An old beekeeper who was one of my mentors told of a year where he observed them collecting water all day long, and then foraging for nectar and pollen under the full moon.
Now, some of you will see where this idea is heading, but maybe some of you are thinking to yourselves "so we'll have less honey. SO what?"
If pollinating insects, such as bees, are not foraging, they are not pollinating. Simple. Obvious. I am not sure what temperature ALL foraging stops, but it is somewhere in the mid to high 30s. If the planet warms up, there will be more days in that range, and above. No pollination, very little fruit, and very little seed for vegetables.
But the reduction in foraging insects might not matter.In order for many types of fruit trees to ripen their buds properly, and to avoid delayed or poor flowering and foliation, they have a "chill requirement." I would love to list all the fruit trees that need a chill period, and how long, but there are so many. Apples, pears, peaches, cherries, olives, figs, nuts, lychees. . . (A TROPICAL plant, Lychees need 100 to 200 hours of winter chill.) and more.
Most of the areas we have these kinds of trees growing will have enough chill for a while to come. . . but not every year. Here in Melbourne, we have already had years where orchards closer to the city have had reduced yields, so that the more uncommon varieties of apples, that some of these orchards focus on, were unavailable.
Now, as it currently stands, and with predicted temperature increases, we will probably still have these fruits for 50 to 100 years, and maybe more, but availability will become erratic. Also, for many of them, work has been done on producing "low chill" varieties. There is a "tropical apple" available (Anna) that has a chill requirement of less than 100 hours. It has a passable flavour, but may be inferior to most non-tropical apples, and certainly inferior to other normal tropical fruits.
Reduction in chill hours isn't the only problem though. As temperatures increase in late spring and summer, leaves and fruit will get sunburned, bark on younger trees may get sunburned, flowers and developing fruits may drop, stomata on leaves will close up, potentially stunting growth, and the obvious worst case scenario: trees may die.
And of course, droughts, floods, hailstorms, cyclones/hurricanes, heatwaves, polar vortices, and other "extreme" weather phenomena will become more common, and all of those can have adverse affects on ALL our crops. Australian banana supply has been affected multiple times recently by cyclones. Apples are knocked from trees, or rendered inedible by large hailstones. Floods and droughts (and even late spring rains) affect grain crops. Heat reduces grass growth, drought stops it altogether, so hay making and feeding of animals will be affected.
What percentage of our current yields can we afford to lose? If the whole world experiences drops in yields, who gets the food? (Rich people??)
The anxiety Greta is accused is creating, and the possibility of extinction referenced by Extinction rebellion. Very, very real futures.
WE. NEED. ACTION. NOW.
Bees maintain a very careful 32 degree (Celsius) temperature in the brood chamber of their hive. They do this by using vibrations to heat the hive in cool weather, and by evaporative cooling in warm weather.You know how, when the weather gets near to 36 degrees (human body temperature) you have already she layers of clothing, and probably had a few cool drinks, maybe you sit in the airconditoned comfort of your home, or in the shade, or maybe you go for a swim? And you don't wait until it gets that warm to do these things: you start doing them maybe 10 degrees cooler than human body temperature. Well, so do honey bees.
The foraging bees in a hive STOP foraging as it gets hotter, and only collect water. An old beekeeper who was one of my mentors told of a year where he observed them collecting water all day long, and then foraging for nectar and pollen under the full moon.
Now, some of you will see where this idea is heading, but maybe some of you are thinking to yourselves "so we'll have less honey. SO what?"
If pollinating insects, such as bees, are not foraging, they are not pollinating. Simple. Obvious. I am not sure what temperature ALL foraging stops, but it is somewhere in the mid to high 30s. If the planet warms up, there will be more days in that range, and above. No pollination, very little fruit, and very little seed for vegetables.
But the reduction in foraging insects might not matter.In order for many types of fruit trees to ripen their buds properly, and to avoid delayed or poor flowering and foliation, they have a "chill requirement." I would love to list all the fruit trees that need a chill period, and how long, but there are so many. Apples, pears, peaches, cherries, olives, figs, nuts, lychees. . . (A TROPICAL plant, Lychees need 100 to 200 hours of winter chill.) and more.
Most of the areas we have these kinds of trees growing will have enough chill for a while to come. . . but not every year. Here in Melbourne, we have already had years where orchards closer to the city have had reduced yields, so that the more uncommon varieties of apples, that some of these orchards focus on, were unavailable.
Now, as it currently stands, and with predicted temperature increases, we will probably still have these fruits for 50 to 100 years, and maybe more, but availability will become erratic. Also, for many of them, work has been done on producing "low chill" varieties. There is a "tropical apple" available (Anna) that has a chill requirement of less than 100 hours. It has a passable flavour, but may be inferior to most non-tropical apples, and certainly inferior to other normal tropical fruits.
Reduction in chill hours isn't the only problem though. As temperatures increase in late spring and summer, leaves and fruit will get sunburned, bark on younger trees may get sunburned, flowers and developing fruits may drop, stomata on leaves will close up, potentially stunting growth, and the obvious worst case scenario: trees may die.
And of course, droughts, floods, hailstorms, cyclones/hurricanes, heatwaves, polar vortices, and other "extreme" weather phenomena will become more common, and all of those can have adverse affects on ALL our crops. Australian banana supply has been affected multiple times recently by cyclones. Apples are knocked from trees, or rendered inedible by large hailstones. Floods and droughts (and even late spring rains) affect grain crops. Heat reduces grass growth, drought stops it altogether, so hay making and feeding of animals will be affected.
What percentage of our current yields can we afford to lose? If the whole world experiences drops in yields, who gets the food? (Rich people??)
The anxiety Greta is accused is creating, and the possibility of extinction referenced by Extinction rebellion. Very, very real futures.
WE. NEED. ACTION. NOW.
